012630

HDCKR04/16/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+0.50%

P05–P95 span

21.90%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.56

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+3.12%

Outer 90%

10/10(100%)

Middle 50%

8/10(80%)

Above median

7/10(70%)

Below median

3/10(30%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -10.44%P25: -2.63%P50: 0.50%P75: 4.23%P95: 11.46%

Computed at: 04/16/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 19.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.