Insights / kr
012630
HDCKR04/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.26%
P05–P95 span
30.59%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.39
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.50%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -15.18%P25: -3.35%P50: -1.26%P75: 3.62%P95: 15.41%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:48 AM · ESS 4.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.