Insights / kr
011790
SKCKR05/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.90%
P05–P95 span
25.50%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.49
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-12.21%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -14.91%P25: -6.05%P50: -1.90%P75: 1.28%P95: 10.59%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.