Insights / kr
011790
SKCKR04/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.75%
P05–P95 span
17.25%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+37.61%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.73%P25: -1.48%P50: 0.75%P75: 4.46%P95: 13.52%
Computed at: 04/21/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 15.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.