011200

HMMKR06/04/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

-0.10%

P05–P95 span

17.25%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.65

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+4

-4.17%

Outer 90%

0/4(0%)

Middle 50%

0/4(0%)

Above median

0/4(0%)

Below median

4/4(100%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -10.00%P25: -1.04%P50: -0.10%P75: 2.00%P95: 7.25%

Computed at: 06/04/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 5.0 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.