Insights / kr
011200
HMMKR05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.98%
P05–P95 span
14.07%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-6.47%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -0.95%P25: 0.49%P50: 1.98%P75: 4.75%P95: 13.12%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 4.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.