Insights / kr
011200
HMMKR05/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.00%
P05–P95 span
26.85%
Neighbors
14
Sharpness
0.46
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.95%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
10/10(100%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.84%P25: -2.73%P50: 0.00%P75: 1.76%P95: 19.01%
Computed at: 05/12/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 13.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.