Insights / kr
011200
HMMKR04/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.97%
P05–P95 span
16.59%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.83%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.06%P25: -1.07%P50: 0.97%P75: 3.73%P95: 9.52%
Computed at: 04/27/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.