Insights / kr
011200
HMMKR04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.47%
P05–P95 span
31.46%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.37
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.69%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.08%P25: -3.17%P50: -0.47%P75: 3.60%P95: 24.39%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 24.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.