Insights / kr
001040
CJKR06/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.58%
P05–P95 span
15.37%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.69
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
3 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+3
+11.72%
Outer 90%
0/3(0%)
Middle 50%
0/3(0%)
Above median
3/3(100%)
Below median
0/3(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.86%P25: -2.58%P50: -0.58%P75: 2.80%P95: 9.51%
Computed at: 06/10/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.