Insights / kr
001040
CJKR06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-3.27%
P05–P95 span
26.67%
Neighbors
11
Sharpness
0.47
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.10%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -16.28%P25: -8.47%P50: -3.27%P75: 0.00%P95: 10.39%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 10.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.