Insights / kr
001040
CJKR05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.33%
P05–P95 span
27.69%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.45
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.63%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.98%P25: -9.82%P50: -2.33%P75: 0.98%P95: 13.70%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 5.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.