000810

삼성화재KR05/07/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+1.37%
P05–P95 span
37.79%
Neighbors
7
Sharpness
0.24
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+16.12%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -11.14%P25: -2.36%P50: 1.37%P75: 12.71%P95: 26.65%

Computed at: 05/07/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 7.0 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.