Insights / kr
000810
삼성화재KR04/22/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.54%
P05–P95 span
21.95%
Neighbors
17
Sharpness
0.56
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.56%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.72%P25: -2.50%P50: -0.54%P75: 2.30%P95: 14.24%
Computed at: 04/22/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 16.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.